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Bochum U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
CANC
10:00
Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
11/21/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 7Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bochum U1962%
×Draw19%
Alemannia Aachen U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.44
Alemannia Aachen U19
1.28

Bochum U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
Alemannia Aachen U19
1.18

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
Alemannia Aachen U19
2.52

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
81%
Bochum U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19
81%
Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19
38%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
41%
Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
91%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
70%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
43%
Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
72%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
37%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.52 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.44

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.18 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
62%
level
19%
Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
19%

Bochum U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bochum U19 face Alemannia Aachen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Bochum U19 hosting Alemannia Aachen U19. Match starts November 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bochum U19 host Alemannia Aachen U19 at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.