Boca Unidos 0–1 Union Sunchales: Result & Stats

Boca Unidos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union Sunchales

D. Rostagno 45+3'

6/9/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 4 - 13Estadio José Antonio Romero Feris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Boca Unidos54%

×Draw26%

Union Sunchales21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca UnidosExpected goals in this matchUnion Sunchales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.84

Boca Unidos

1.53

Union Sunchales

0.84

Boca Unidos creates 82% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 84 away

1.43

creates per match

0.77

0.91

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Boca Unidos

1.43

Union Sunchales

0.77

allows per match

Boca Unidos

0.91

Union Sunchales

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Unidos ↓

Union Sunchales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Boca Unidos or draw

79%

Boca Unidos or Union Sunchales

74%

Draw or Union Sunchales

46%

Winning margin

Boca Unidos wins by 2+

28%

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Boca Unidos 1+ goals

78%

Boca Unidos 2+ goals

45%

Boca Unidos 3+ goals

20%

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

57%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

21%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Boca Unidos (draw refunded)

72%

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Unidos at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.91 · 106 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.64 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Unidos attack 1.43 + Union Sunchales defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Union Sunchales attack 0.77 + Boca Unidos defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Boca Unidos scores more

54%

level

26%

Union Sunchales scores more

21%

Boca Unidos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Boca Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

46'

46'

58'

64'

I. Méndez← M. Espíndola

66'

L. Kulich← D. Rostagno

66'

F. Picone← F. Cima

80'

J. Vallejos← F. González

80'

M. Barzola← J. Aguilar

Boca

Union

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Alfonsín

46'▲G. Ríos←▼M. Solari

46'▲G. Segovia←▼A. Leani

64'▲I. Méndez←▼M. Espíndola

Boca Unidos substitutes

RíosSegoviaMéndez

Manager: J. Alomo

58'▲G. Romero←▼M. Rojo

66'▲L. Kulich←▼D. Rostagno

66'▲F. Picone←▼F. Cima

80'▲J. Vallejos←▼F. González

80'▲M. Barzola←▼J. Aguilar

Union Sunchales substitutes

RomeroKulichPiconeVallejosBarzola