Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Boca Juniors49%
Union Santa Fe23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Boca Juniors creates 62% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Boca Juniors ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 7 matches
Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Boca Juniors attack 1.59 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33
Union Santa Fe attack 0.89 + Boca Juniors defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Boca Juniors at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Club
Defensa Y JusticiaBoca Juniors
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
Velez Sarsfield
IndependienteUnion Santa Fe
Tigre
Huracan
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Aldosivi
Godoy Cruz
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
Estudiantes L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
Patronato
Rosario Central
San Martin S.J.
Belgrano Cordoba
San Lorenzo
Colon Santa Fe
San Martin Tucuman
Argentinos JrsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Boca Juniors host Union Santa Fe on Thursday, 21 November 2024 at 00:30. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2018/2019 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 1–0 Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors beat Union Santa Fe 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 21, 2024.
Goals: M. Giménez (4').
Boca Juniors controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.