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Académica do Soyo vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2012

Académica do Soyo
Académica do Soyo
FT
0 – 2
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
4/14/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 7Estádio dos Embondeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Académica do Soyo16%
×Draw29%
Petro de Luanda55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Soyo
0.58
Petro de Luanda
1.32

Petro de Luanda creates 128% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

creates per match

Académica do Soyo
0.67
Petro de Luanda
1.64

allows per match

Académica do Soyo
1.00
Petro de Luanda
0.50

finishing

Académica do Soyo+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Soyo ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–120%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Académica do Soyo or draw
45%
Académica do Soyo or Petro de Luanda
71%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
84%

Winning margin

Académica do Soyo wins by 2+
4%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Académica do Soyo 1+ goals
44%
Académica do Soyo 2+ goals
12%
Académica do Soyo 3+ goals
2%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
73%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
38%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)
23%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Soyo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Soyo attack 0.67 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Petro de Luanda attack 1.64 + Académica do Soyo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Académica do Soyo scores more
16%
level
29%
Petro de Luanda scores more
55%

Petro de Luanda at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Soyo vs Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Académica do Soyo 2-0 in Girabola on April 14, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio dos Embondeiros.