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Boca Juniors vs Central Norte — Copa Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Central Norte
Central Norte
3/23/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Boca Juniors70%
×Draw17%
Central Norte13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
2.48
Central Norte
0.97

Boca Juniors creates 156% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
2.53
Central Norte
1.00

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.94
Central Norte
2.44

finishing

Boca Juniors+0.00on par
Central Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Central Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
87%
Boca Juniors or Central Norte
83%
Draw or Central Norte
30%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
48%
Central Norte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
92%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
70%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
44%
Central Norte 1+ goals
62%
Central Norte 2+ goals
25%
Central Norte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
84%
Central Norte (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Central Norte away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 2.53 + Central Norte defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.48

Central Norte attack 1.00 + Boca Juniors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
70%
level
17%
Central Norte scores more
13%

Boca Juniors at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Boca Juniors 3–0 Central Norte

Boca Juniors beat Central Norte 3-0 in Copa Argentina on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.