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Boca Juniors Res. vs Independiente Res. — Reserve League 2022

Boca Juniors Res.
Boca Juniors Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Res.
Independiente Res.
4/30/2026Reserve LeagueReserve League · Apertura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Boca Juniors Res.54%
×Draw26%
Independiente Res.20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors Res.
1.56
Independiente Res.
0.85

Boca Juniors Res. creates 84% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors Res.
1.82
Independiente Res.
1.16

allows per match

Boca Juniors Res.
0.55
Independiente Res.
1.29

finishing

Boca Juniors Res.+0.00on par
Independiente Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors Res. ↓

Independiente Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boca Juniors Res. or draw
80%
Boca Juniors Res. or Independiente Res.
74%
Draw or Independiente Res.
46%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors Res. wins by 2+
28%
Independiente Res. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors Res. 1+ goals
79%
Boca Juniors Res. 2+ goals
46%
Boca Juniors Res. 3+ goals
21%
Independiente Res. 1+ goals
57%
Independiente Res. 2+ goals
21%
Independiente Res. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors Res. (draw refunded)
73%
Independiente Res. (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors Res. at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Independiente Res. away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors Res. attack 1.82 + Independiente Res. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Independiente Res. attack 1.16 + Boca Juniors Res. defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Boca Juniors Res. scores more
54%
level
26%
Independiente Res. scores more
20%

Boca Juniors Res. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Boca Juniors Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boca Juniors Res. vs Independiente Res.

Independiente Res. beat Boca Juniors Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on April 30, 2026.