Boavista 3–1 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Boavista

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vitoria Setubal

6/18/2020

Primeira Liga · Round 27Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Boavista37%

×Draw29%

Vitoria Setubal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoavistaExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.09

Boavista

1.16

Vitoria Setubal

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 37 away

1.04

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Boavista

1.04

Vitoria Setubal

0.89

allows per match

Boavista

1.30

Vitoria Setubal

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boavista or draw

66%

Boavista or Vitoria Setubal

71%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

63%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+

16%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals

69%

Boavista 2+ goals

32%

Boavista 3+ goals

11%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

66%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

30%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)

52%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boavista scores more

37%

level

29%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

34%

Boavista at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff