Boavista 1–1 Tondela: Result & Stats

Boavista

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tondela

5/7/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 31Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Boavista44%

×Draw26%

Tondela30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoavistaExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Boavista

1.44

Tondela

1.15

Boavista creates 25% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 85 away

1.04

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Boavista

1.04

Tondela

1.00

allows per match

Boavista

1.30

Tondela

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Boavista or draw

70%

Boavista or Tondela

74%

Draw or Tondela

56%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+

21%

Tondela wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals

76%

Boavista 2+ goals

42%

Boavista 3+ goals

18%

Tondela 1+ goals

68%

Tondela 2+ goals

32%

Tondela 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)

59%

Tondela (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Tondela defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tondela attack 1.00 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Boavista scores more

44%

level

26%

Tondela scores more

30%

Boavista at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff