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Boavista vs Santa Clara — Primeira Liga 2018

Boavista
Boavista
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
8/23/2021Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 3Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista38%
×Draw28%
Santa Clara34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista
1.20
Santa Clara
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Boavista
1.04
Santa Clara
0.92

allows per match

Boavista
1.30
Santa Clara
1.35

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par
Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boavista or draw
66%
Boavista or Santa Clara
72%
Draw or Santa Clara
62%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+
16%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals
70%
Boavista 2+ goals
34%
Boavista 3+ goals
12%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
67%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
30%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)
53%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.35 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Santa Clara defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Santa Clara attack 0.92 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boavista scores more
38%
level
28%
Santa Clara scores more
34%

Boavista at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boavista vs Santa Clara

Boavista beat Santa Clara 2-0 in Primeira Liga on August 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Porto.