Boavista 3–3 Rio Ave: Result & Stats

Boavista

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Rio Ave

4/10/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 26Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista38%

×Draw28%

Rio Ave34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoavistaExpected goals in this matchRio Ave

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.16

Boavista

1.24

Rio Ave

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

1.04

creates per match

1.01

1.30

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Boavista

1.04

Rio Ave

1.01

allows per match

Boavista

1.30

Rio Ave

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par

Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Rio Ave →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Boavista or draw

66%

Boavista or Rio Ave

72%

Draw or Rio Ave

62%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+

17%

Rio Ave wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals

71%

Boavista 2+ goals

35%

Boavista 3+ goals

13%

Rio Ave 1+ goals

69%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

32%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)

53%

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Rio Ave defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rio Ave attack 1.01 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boavista scores more

38%

level

28%

Rio Ave scores more

34%

Boavista at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff