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Boavista vs Nacional — Primeira Liga 2018

Boavista
Boavista
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nacional
Nacional
4/14/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 29Estádio do Bessa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Boavista46%
×Draw26%
Nacional28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista
1.44
Nacional
1.06

Boavista creates 36% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 68 away

creates per match

Boavista
1.04
Nacional
0.81

allows per match

Boavista
1.30
Nacional
1.84

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boavista or draw
72%
Boavista or Nacional
74%
Draw or Nacional
54%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+
22%
Nacional wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals
76%
Boavista 2+ goals
42%
Boavista 3+ goals
18%
Nacional 1+ goals
65%
Nacional 2+ goals
29%
Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)
62%
Nacional (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Nacional away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Nacional defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nacional attack 0.81 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Boavista scores more
46%
level
26%
Nacional scores more
28%

Boavista at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boavista vs Nacional

Boavista beat Nacional 1-0 in Primeira Liga on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa in Porto.