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Boavista vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga 2018

Boavista
Boavista
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maritimo
Maritimo
4/25/2021Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 29Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Boavista44%
×Draw27%
Maritimo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista
1.35
Maritimo
1.04

Boavista creates 30% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 86 away

creates per match

Boavista
1.04
Maritimo
0.79

allows per match

Boavista
1.30
Maritimo
1.66

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par
Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boavista or draw
71%
Boavista or Maritimo
73%
Draw or Maritimo
56%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+
20%
Maritimo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals
74%
Boavista 2+ goals
39%
Boavista 3+ goals
15%
Maritimo 1+ goals
65%
Maritimo 2+ goals
28%
Maritimo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)
60%
Maritimo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Maritimo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.66 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Maritimo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Maritimo attack 0.79 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Boavista scores more
44%
level
27%
Maritimo scores more
29%

Boavista at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Boavista 0–1 Maritimo

Maritimo beat Boavista 1-0 in Primeira Liga on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Porto.