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Boavista vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga 2018

Boavista
Boavista
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
5/4/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 32Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista38%
×Draw28%
GIL Vicente34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista
1.25
GIL Vicente
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Boavista
1.04
GIL Vicente
1.03

allows per match

Boavista
1.30
GIL Vicente
1.46

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par
GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boavista or draw
66%
Boavista or GIL Vicente
72%
Draw or GIL Vicente
62%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+
17%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals
71%
Boavista 2+ goals
36%
Boavista 3+ goals
13%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
69%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
33%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)
53%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + GIL Vicente defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

GIL Vicente attack 1.03 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boavista scores more
38%
level
28%
GIL Vicente scores more
34%

Boavista at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boavista vs GIL Vicente

Boavista and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Porto.