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Boavista vs Benfica — Primeira Liga 2018

Boavista
Boavista
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Benfica
Benfica
12/6/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 13Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista21%
×Draw24%
Benfica55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista
0.93
Benfica
1.69

Benfica creates 82% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

creates per match

Boavista
1.04
Benfica
2.07

allows per match

Boavista
1.30
Benfica
0.81

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Boavista or draw
45%
Boavista or Benfica
76%
Draw or Benfica
79%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+
7%
Benfica wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals
61%
Boavista 2+ goals
24%
Boavista 3+ goals
7%
Benfica 1+ goals
82%
Benfica 2+ goals
50%
Benfica 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)
27%
Benfica (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Benfica attack 2.07 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Boavista scores more
21%
level
24%
Benfica scores more
55%

Benfica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boavista vs Benfica

Benfica beat Boavista 4-1 in Primeira Liga on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Porto.