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Benfica vs Boavista — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boavista
Boavista
2/20/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 21Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Benfica66%
×Draw20%
Boavista15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.15
Boavista
0.90

Benfica creates 139% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 119 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.63
Boavista
1.03

allows per match

Benfica
0.77
Boavista
1.68

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Boavista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
85%
Benfica or Boavista
80%
Draw or Boavista
34%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
42%
Boavista wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
88%
Benfica 2+ goals
63%
Benfica 3+ goals
36%
Boavista 1+ goals
59%
Boavista 2+ goals
23%
Boavista 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
82%
Boavista (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.77 · 136 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.63 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.15

Boavista attack 1.03 + Benfica defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Benfica scores more
66%
level
20%
Boavista scores more
15%

Benfica at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Benfica 3–1 Boavista

Benfica beat Boavista 3-1 in Primeira Liga on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.