Boavista 1–3 Arouca: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Boavista

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Arouca

1/4/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 17Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Boavista38%

×Draw27%

Arouca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoavistaExpected goals in this matchArouca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.22

Boavista

1.29

Arouca

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 86 away

1.04

creates per match

1.14

1.30

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Boavista

1.04

Arouca

1.14

allows per match

Boavista

1.30

Arouca

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par

Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Arouca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boavista or draw

65%

Boavista or Arouca

73%

Draw or Arouca

62%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+

17%

Arouca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals

72%

Boavista 2+ goals

37%

Boavista 3+ goals

14%

Arouca 1+ goals

70%

Arouca 2+ goals

34%

Arouca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)

52%

Arouca (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Arouca away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Arouca defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arouca attack 1.14 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boavista scores more

38%

level

27%

Arouca scores more

35%

Boavista at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff