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Boavista SC vs Santo André — Serie D 2026

Boavista SC
Boavista SC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santo André
Santo André
8/28/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 13Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Boavista SC39%
×Draw29%
Santo André32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista SC
1.16
Santo André
1.01

Boavista SC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

creates per match

Boavista SC
1.00
Santo André
0.97

allows per match

Boavista SC
1.05
Santo André
1.31

finishing

Boavista SC+0.00on par
Santo André+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista SC ↓

Santo André →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Boavista SC or draw
68%
Boavista SC or Santo André
71%
Draw or Santo André
61%

Winning margin

Boavista SC wins by 2+
16%
Santo André wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Boavista SC 1+ goals
69%
Boavista SC 2+ goals
32%
Boavista SC 3+ goals
11%
Santo André 1+ goals
64%
Santo André 2+ goals
27%
Santo André 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Boavista SC (draw refunded)
55%
Santo André (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Santo André away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista SC attack 1.00 + Santo André defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Santo André attack 0.97 + Boavista SC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boavista SC scores more
39%
level
29%
Santo André scores more
32%

Boavista SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Boavista SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Boavista SC 0–2 Santo André

Santo André beat Boavista SC 2-0 in Serie D on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça in Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro.