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Boavista SC vs Gaúcho — Serie D 2018

Boavista SC
Boavista SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gaúcho
Gaúcho
5/12/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça (Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Boavista SC48%
×Draw26%
Gaúcho26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista SC
1.50
Gaúcho
1.02

Boavista SC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Boavista SC
1.00
Gaúcho
1.00

allows per match

Boavista SC
1.05
Gaúcho
2.00

finishing

Boavista SC+0.00on par
Gaúcho+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista SC ↓

Gaúcho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boavista SC or draw
74%
Boavista SC or Gaúcho
74%
Draw or Gaúcho
52%

Winning margin

Boavista SC wins by 2+
24%
Gaúcho wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Boavista SC 1+ goals
78%
Boavista SC 2+ goals
44%
Boavista SC 3+ goals
19%
Gaúcho 1+ goals
64%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
27%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Boavista SC (draw refunded)
65%
Gaúcho (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Gaúcho away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista SC attack 1.00 + Gaúcho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gaúcho attack 1.00 + Boavista SC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Boavista SC scores more
48%
level
26%
Gaúcho scores more
26%

Boavista SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Boavista SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boavista SC vs Gaúcho

Boavista SC beat Gaúcho 2-1 in Serie D on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça (Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro).