BOA 2–2 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats | Serie C

BOA

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Volta Redonda

Raphael Indio 78', 30'

Heitor 58', 21'

8/10/2020

Serie C · Round 1Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BOA43%

×Draw29%

Volta Redonda28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.95

BOA

1.25

Volta Redonda

0.95

BOA creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 81 away

1.06

creates per match

1.06

0.83

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

BOA

1.06

Volta Redonda

1.06

allows per match

BOA

0.83

Volta Redonda

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

BOA or draw

72%

BOA or Volta Redonda

71%

Draw or Volta Redonda

57%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

19%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

71%

BOA 2+ goals

36%

BOA 3+ goals

13%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

61%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

25%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

61%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.06 + Volta Redonda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Volta Redonda attack 1.06 + BOA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BOA scores more

43%

level

29%

Volta Redonda scores more

28%

BOA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Heitor

30'

Raphael Indio

58'

Heitor

60'

João Guilherme← Maicon Souza

64'

Saulo Mineiro← Wallisson Luiz

70'

Diego Ceará← Marcos Paulo

70'

Nonoca← Johnnattan

76'

Bernardo← Luciano Naninho

78'

Raphael Indio

80'

Amaral← Raphael Indio

80'

Romário Simões← Denis Custodio

BOA

Volta

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nedo Xavier

60'▲João Guilherme←▼Maicon Souza

70'▲Diego Ceará←▼Marcos Paulo

70'▲Nonoca←▼Johnnattan

80'▲Amaral←▼Raphael Indio

80'▲Romário Simões←▼Denis Custodio

BOA substitutes

GuilhermeCearáNonocaAmaralSimõesPascoalClaudeciJulianoMarcio

Manager: Luizinho Vieira

64'▲Saulo Mineiro←▼Wallisson Luiz

76'▲Bernardo←▼Luciano Naninho

Volta Redonda substitutes

MineiroBernardoViníciusDanielLuanBorgesThomazCariocaAmorim