BOA 1–1 Varginha EC: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

BOA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Varginha EC

Nicolas 49'

Igor Lemos 86' (pen)

5/12/2024

Mineiro - 2 · Round 2Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

BOA40%

×Draw28%

Varginha EC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchVarginha EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

BOA

1.25

Varginha EC

1.07

BOA creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

1.03

creates per match

0.92

1.23

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

BOA

1.03

Varginha EC

0.92

allows per match

BOA

1.23

Varginha EC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Varginha EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

BOA or draw

68%

BOA or Varginha EC

72%

Draw or Varginha EC

60%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

18%

Varginha EC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

71%

BOA 2+ goals

36%

BOA 3+ goals

13%

Varginha EC 1+ goals

66%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

29%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

56%

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.03 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + BOA defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BOA scores more

40%

level

28%

Varginha EC scores more

32%

BOA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Nicolas

86'

Igor LemosPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff