BOA 3–1 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats | Serie B

BOA

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sampaio Correa

Kaio Cristian 76'

Machado 73'

Helder Maurílio 13'

Uilliam 22'

7/29/2018

Serie B · Round 18Melão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BOA41%

×Draw30%

Sampaio Correa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

BOA

1.15

Sampaio Correa

0.91

BOA creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 86 away

1.00

creates per match

0.74

1.08

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

BOA

1.00

Sampaio Correa

0.74

allows per match

BOA

1.08

Sampaio Correa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

BOA or draw

71%

BOA or Sampaio Correa

70%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

59%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

17%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

68%

BOA 2+ goals

32%

BOA 3+ goals

11%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

60%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

23%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

59%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.00 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sampaio Correa attack 0.74 + BOA defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BOA scores more

41%

level

30%

Sampaio Correa scores more

29%

BOA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Helder Maurílio↳ Daniel Cruz

22'

Uilliam↳ Fernando Sobral

45'

Maycon Lucas

60'

William Barbio← Daniel Cruz

62'

Uilliam

63'

Reginaldo Júnior← Alvinho

69'

Machado← Maycon

73'

Machado↳ Bruno Tubarão

74'

Djavan

74'

Marcelo Ferreira← Bruno Moura

76'

Kaio Cristian↳ Douglas Baggio

80'

Alyson← Kaio Cristian

80'

Dalberto← Danilo Pires

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BOASampaio

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots12

5Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target5

5Off Target5

2Blocked2

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

277Total Passes487

189Accurate Passes376

68%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1