BOA 2–2 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie C

BOA

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Remo

Wenderson Tsunami 84'

Pedrinho 25'

Alex Sandro 66'

Fredson 8'

6/29/2019

Serie C · Round 10Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo (Varginha, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BOA42%

×Draw30%

Remo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.86

BOA

1.15

Remo

0.86

BOA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

1.06

creates per match

0.89

0.83

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

BOA

1.06

Remo

0.89

allows per match

BOA

0.83

Remo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

BOA or draw

73%

BOA or Remo

70%

Draw or Remo

58%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

18%

Remo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

68%

BOA 2+ goals

32%

BOA 3+ goals

11%

Remo 1+ goals

58%

Remo 2+ goals

21%

Remo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

61%

Remo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Remo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.06 + Remo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Remo attack 0.89 + BOA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BOA scores more

42%

level

30%

Remo scores more

27%

BOA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Fredson

25'

Pedrinho

46'

Marcão← Zotti

66'

Alex Sandro

69'

Jayme← Denis Ribeiro

71'

Danilo← Pedrinho

78'

Claudeci← Rodrigo Souza

78'

Gustavinho← Danillo Bala

79'

Mario Sergio← Alex Sandro

84'

Wenderson Tsunami

BOA

Remo

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Paulo Foiani

69'▲Jayme←▼Denis Ribeiro

71'▲Danilo←▼Pedrinho

78'▲Claudeci←▼Rodrigo Souza

BOA substitutes

JaymeDaniloClaudeciDaltonAndersonGindréFariasSilvaCristianRenan

Manager: Márcio Fernandes

46'▲Marcão←▼Zotti

78'▲Gustavinho←▼Danillo Bala

79'▲Mario Sergio←▼Alex Sandro

Remo substitutes

MarcãoGustavinhoSergioThiagoDedecoGarréTufaRonaell

Serie C: BOA 2–2 Remo

BOA and Remo drew 2-2 in Serie C on June 29, 2019.

Goals: Fredson (8'), Pedrinho (25'), Alex Sandro (66'), Wenderson Tsunami (84').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo (Varginha, Minas Gerais).

BOA vs Remo — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: BOA 2–2 Remo