BOA 1–1 Paysandu: Result & Stats | Serie B

BOA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

William Barbio 6'

Hugo Almeida 31'

9/15/2018

Serie B · Round 27Melão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BOA40%

×Draw29%

Paysandu31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.04

BOA

1.21

Paysandu

1.04

BOA creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 64 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

BOA

1.00

Paysandu

1.00

allows per match

BOA

1.08

Paysandu

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

BOA or draw

69%

BOA or Paysandu

71%

Draw or Paysandu

60%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

17%

Paysandu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

70%

BOA 2+ goals

34%

BOA 3+ goals

12%

Paysandu 1+ goals

65%

Paysandu 2+ goals

28%

Paysandu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

56%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.00 + Paysandu defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Paysandu attack 1.00 + BOA defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BOA scores more

40%

level

29%

Paysandu scores more

31%

BOA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

William Barbio↳ Douglas Baggio

8'

22'

22'

31'

59'

64'

Magno← Thomaz

70'

Juninho Potiguar← Bruno Tubarão

73'

Pedro Carmona← Willyam

80'

Guilherme Teixeira← Perema

82'

Manoel← Daniel Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BOAPaysandu

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots13

5Corners7

18Fouls20

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target7

4Off Target5

0Blocked1

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

306Total Passes237

204Accurate Passes146

67%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

BOA 1 – 1 Paysandu

BOA and Paysandu drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 15, 2018.

Goals: William Barbio (6'), Hugo Almeida (31').

BOA controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Melão in Varginha.

BOA vs Paysandu — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BOA 1 – 1 Paysandu