BOA 0–1 North Esporte: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

BOA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

North Esporte

Victor 10' (OG)

6/5/2024

Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

BOA34%

×Draw31%

North Esporte35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchNorth Esporte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.99

BOA

0.97

North Esporte

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

1.03

creates per match

0.76

1.23

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

BOA

1.03

North Esporte

0.76

allows per match

BOA

1.23

North Esporte

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

North Esporte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

BOA or draw

65%

BOA or North Esporte

69%

Draw or North Esporte

66%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

12%

North Esporte wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

62%

BOA 2+ goals

25%

BOA 3+ goals

7%

North Esporte 1+ goals

63%

North Esporte 2+ goals

26%

North Esporte 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

49%

North Esporte (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.03 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

North Esporte attack 0.76 + BOA defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

BOA scores more

34%

level

31%

North Esporte scores more

35%

North Esporte at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "North Esporte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

VictorOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff