BOA 0–0 Luverdense: Result & Stats | Serie C

BOA

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luverdense

8/5/2019

Serie C · Round 15Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo (Varginha, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BOA49%

×Draw29%

Luverdense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchLuverdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.80

BOA

1.31

Luverdense

0.80

BOA creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.06

creates per match

0.78

0.83

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

BOA

1.06

Luverdense

0.78

allows per match

BOA

0.83

Luverdense

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Luverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Luverdense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

BOA or draw

77%

BOA or Luverdense

71%

Draw or Luverdense

51%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

23%

Luverdense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

73%

BOA 2+ goals

38%

BOA 3+ goals

14%

Luverdense 1+ goals

55%

Luverdense 2+ goals

19%

Luverdense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

68%

Luverdense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Luverdense away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.06 + Luverdense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Luverdense attack 0.78 + BOA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BOA scores more

49%

level

29%

Luverdense scores more

23%

BOA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Raphael← Lucas Gama

65'

Breno← Kaio Cristian

70'

Abner← Anderson Gindré

77'

Anderson Ligeiro← Juninho Tardelli

77'

Gabriel← Igor Leandro

88'

Denis Ribeiro← Raphael Indio

BOA

Luverdense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nedo Xavier

65'▲Breno←▼Kaio Cristian

70'▲Abner←▼Anderson Gindré

88'▲Denis Ribeiro←▼Raphael Indio

BOA substitutes

BrenoAbnerRibeiroClaudeciDaltonDaniloSilvaPedrinhoXandy

Manager: Júnior Rocha

52'▲Raphael←▼Lucas Gama

77'▲Anderson Ligeiro←▼Juninho Tardelli

77'▲Gabriel←▼Igor Leandro

Luverdense substitutes

RaphaelLigeiroGabrielAbuSilvaDouglasRoballoSamuelBalbino