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BOA vs Loto Popo — Championnat National 2019

BOA
BOA
FT
1 – 3
Loto Popo
Loto Popo
6/1/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 33Stade Municipal de Bembèrèkè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

BOA33%
×Draw31%
Loto Popo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
0.95
Loto Popo
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

BOA
1.12
Loto Popo
0.99

allows per match

BOA
1.00
Loto Popo
0.78

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Loto Popo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

BOA or draw
65%
BOA or Loto Popo
69%
Draw or Loto Popo
67%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
12%
Loto Popo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
61%
BOA 2+ goals
25%
BOA 3+ goals
7%
Loto Popo 1+ goals
63%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
26%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
48%
Loto Popo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.12 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + BOA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

BOA scores more
33%
level
31%
Loto Popo scores more
35%

Loto Popo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BOA vs Loto Popo

Loto Popo beat BOA 3-1 in Championnat National on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bembèrèkè in Bembèrèkè.