Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BOA vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

BOA
BOA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Londrina
Londrina
Douglas Baggio 90+1'
8/10/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 20Melão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BOA43%
×Draw29%
Londrina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
1.21
Londrina
0.92

BOA creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 90 away

creates per match

BOA
1.00
Londrina
0.76

allows per match

BOA
1.08
Londrina
1.42

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Londrina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

BOA or draw
72%
BOA or Londrina
71%
Draw or Londrina
57%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
19%
Londrina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
70%
BOA 2+ goals
34%
BOA 3+ goals
12%
Londrina 1+ goals
60%
Londrina 2+ goals
23%
Londrina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
60%
Londrina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.00 + Londrina defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Londrina attack 0.76 + BOA defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BOA scores more
43%
level
29%
Londrina scores more
28%

BOA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Djavan
46'
Aldo← Adauto
63'
Juninho Potiguar← Alyson
69'
Felipe Marques← Dagoberto
75'
Anderson Leite← Dudú
78'
Thalis← Daniel Cruz
79'
Lucas Ramon
81'
Thiago Ribeiro← Safira
90+1'
Douglas Baggio↳ Jadson

Possession

BOA: 50Londrina: 5050%BOA

Shots

BOA: 16Londrina: 1516BOA

Pass accuracy

BOA: 74Londrina: 7450%BOA

Statistics

BOALondrina
Overview
50%Possession50%
16Total Shots15
3Corners4
23Fouls19
Shots
16Total Shots15
6On Target4
8Off Target10
2Blocked1
11Inside Box8
5Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
392Total Passes390
289Accurate Passes289
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
23Fouls19
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

BOA 1 – 0 Londrina

BOA beat Londrina 1-0 in Serie B on August 10, 2018.

Goals: Douglas Baggio (90+1').

BOA controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Melão in Varginha.