BOA 2–1 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats | Serie B

BOA

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guarani Campinas

Manoel 74'

Helder Maurílio 5'

Bruno Mendes 3'

10/20/2018

Serie B · Round 32Melão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BOA40%

×Draw29%

Guarani Campinas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.00

BOA

1.17

Guarani Campinas

1.00

BOA creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 107 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

1.08

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

BOA

1.00

Guarani Campinas

0.91

allows per match

BOA

1.08

Guarani Campinas

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

BOA or draw

69%

BOA or Guarani Campinas

71%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

60%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

17%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

69%

BOA 2+ goals

33%

BOA 3+ goals

11%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

63%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

26%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

56%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.00 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Guarani Campinas attack 0.91 + BOA defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BOA scores more

40%

level

29%

Guarani Campinas scores more

31%

BOA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Bruno Mendes↳ Matheus Anjos

5'

Helder Maurílio↳ Alyson

23'

Willian

46'

Maycon← Helder Maurílio

58'

Felipe Rodrigues← Bruno Mendes

62'

Padova← Marcão

70'

Douglas Baggio← Machado

74'

Manoel↳ Alyson

75'

Caique← Matheus Oliveira

80'

PH← Thallyson

84'

Bruno Tubarão

90'

Douglas Baggio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BOAGuarani

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots16

3Corners4

14Fouls23

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target2

4Off Target7

2Blocked7

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

360Total Passes456

255Accurate Passes363

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls23

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2