BOA 0–2 Figueirense: Result & Stats | Serie B

BOA

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Figueirense

Gustavo Ferrareis 29'

Juninho 3'

8/21/2018

Serie B · Round 22Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo (Varginha, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BOA41%

×Draw29%

Figueirense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

BOA

1.21

Figueirense

1.00

BOA creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 46 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

1.08

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

BOA

1.00

Figueirense

0.91

allows per match

BOA

1.08

Figueirense

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

BOA or draw

70%

BOA or Figueirense

71%

Draw or Figueirense

59%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

18%

Figueirense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

70%

BOA 2+ goals

34%

BOA 3+ goals

12%

Figueirense 1+ goals

63%

Figueirense 2+ goals

26%

Figueirense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

57%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.00 + Figueirense defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Figueirense attack 0.91 + BOA defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BOA scores more

41%

level

29%

Figueirense scores more

30%

BOA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Juninho↳ Matheus Sales

29'

Gustavo Ferrareis↳ Renan Mota

32'

Aldo← PH

46'

William Barbio← Jadson

62'

Lucas Lino← Cloves

67'

Felipe Amorim← Juninho

78'

Diego Renan← Gustavo Ferrareis

83'

Eduardo Bauermann← Renan Mota

BOA

Figueirense

1

16

3

14

6

25

36

A

Sales

17

⚽

▼

Ferrareis

99

Elton

20

A

▼

Mota

37

⚽

▼

Juninho

1

Fabricio

4

Rafael

6

▼

Jadson

3

Luan

8

▼

Cloves

2

▼

5

10

7

9

11

Manager: Ney da Matta

32'▲Aldo←▼PH

46'▲William Barbio←▼Jadson

62'▲Lucas Lino←▼Cloves

BOA substitutes

18Aldo19Barbio21Lino17Adauto16Maycon12Darley15Alyson20Potiguar14Rodrigão

Manager: Mílton Cruz

67'▲Felipe Amorim←▼Juninho

78'▲Diego Renan←▼Gustavo Ferrareis

83'▲Eduardo Bauermann←▼Renan Mota

Figueirense substitutes

11Amorim26Renan13Bauermann22Marques4Trevisan7Leite12Alisson19Henan23Patrick

Serie B: BOA 0–2 Figueirense

Figueirense beat BOA 2-0 in Serie B on August 21, 2018.

Goals: Juninho (3'), Gustavo Ferrareis (29').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo (Varginha, Minas Gerais).

BOA vs Figueirense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie B: BOA 0–2 Figueirense