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BOA vs Dynamo Abomey — Championnat National 2019

BOA
BOA
FT
1 – 0
Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
1/19/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 17Stade Municipal de Bembèrèkè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

BOA39%
×Draw30%
Dynamo Abomey31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
1.13
Dynamo Abomey
0.96

BOA creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

BOA
1.12
Dynamo Abomey
0.91

allows per match

BOA
1.00
Dynamo Abomey
1.14

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Dynamo Abomey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

BOA or draw
69%
BOA or Dynamo Abomey
70%
Draw or Dynamo Abomey
61%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
16%
Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
68%
BOA 2+ goals
31%
BOA 3+ goals
11%
Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
62%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
25%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
56%
Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.14 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.12 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.91 + BOA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BOA scores more
39%
level
30%
Dynamo Abomey scores more
31%

BOA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BOA vs Dynamo Abomey

BOA beat Dynamo Abomey 1-0 in Championnat National on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bembèrèkè in Bembèrèkè.