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BOA vs Caldense — Mineiro - 2 2026

BOA
BOA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caldense
Caldense
J. Borim 89'
Joao Guilherme 48'
6/9/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 8Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BOA42%
×Draw29%
Caldense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
1.25
Caldense
0.98

BOA creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

BOA
1.03
Caldense
0.73

allows per match

BOA
1.23
Caldense
1.47

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Caldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BOA or draw
71%
BOA or Caldense
71%
Draw or Caldense
58%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
19%
Caldense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
71%
BOA 2+ goals
36%
BOA 3+ goals
13%
Caldense 1+ goals
62%
Caldense 2+ goals
26%
Caldense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
59%
Caldense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Caldense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.03 + Caldense defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caldense attack 0.73 + BOA defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BOA scores more
42%
level
29%
Caldense scores more
29%

BOA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
Joao Guilherme
89'
J. Borim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BOA 1 – 1 Caldense

BOA and Caldense drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 9, 2024.

Goals: Joao Guilherme (48'), J. Borim (89').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.