BOA 0–1 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie C

BOA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brusque

Alex Sandro 49'

9/6/2020

Serie C · Round 5Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BOA39%

×Draw30%

Brusque31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.96

BOA

1.12

Brusque

0.96

BOA creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 44 away

1.06

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

BOA

1.06

Brusque

1.09

allows per match

BOA

0.83

Brusque

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

BOA or draw

69%

BOA or Brusque

70%

Draw or Brusque

61%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

16%

Brusque wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

67%

BOA 2+ goals

31%

BOA 3+ goals

10%

Brusque 1+ goals

62%

Brusque 2+ goals

25%

Brusque 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

56%

Brusque (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.06 + Brusque defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Brusque attack 1.09 + BOA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BOA scores more

39%

level

30%

Brusque scores more

31%

BOA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

36'

36'

46'

46'

Fabinho← Johnny

46'

Marco Antônio← Dandan

49'

Alex Sandro

54'

Raphael Indio← Maicon Souza

61'

Ronaell← Airton

64'

Cesinha← Marcos Paulo

BOA

Brusque

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sidney Moraes

54'▲Raphael Indio←▼Maicon Souza

64'▲Cesinha←▼Marcos Paulo

BOA substitutes

IndioCesinhaRochaClaudeciCearáGabrielJulianoKallylBeloMendesGaúchoGabriel

Manager: Jerson Testoni

32'▲Escuro←▼Ruan Costa

46'▲Alex Sandro←▼Eliomar

46'▲Fabinho←▼Johnny

46'▲Marco Antônio←▼Dandan

61'▲Ronaell←▼Airton

Brusque substitutes

EscuroSandroFabinhoAntônioRonaellRuanAlemãoIansonCarlosPotiguarAlagoanoMateus

Match Recap: BOA vs Brusque

Brusque beat BOA 1-0 in Serie C on September 6, 2020.

Goals: Alex Sandro (49').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.

BOA vs Brusque — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BOA vs Brusque