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BOA vs Avai — Serie B 2026

BOA
BOA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Avai
Avai
Renato 45+1'
Rômulo 16'
6/15/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 11Melão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

BOA37%
×Draw30%
Avai33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
1.09
Avai
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 115 away

creates per match

BOA
1.00
Avai
0.95

allows per match

BOA
1.08
Avai
1.19

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 65Over: 3565%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

BOA or draw
67%
BOA or Avai
70%
Draw or Avai
63%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
15%
Avai wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
66%
BOA 2+ goals
30%
BOA 3+ goals
10%
Avai 1+ goals
64%
Avai 2+ goals
27%
Avai 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
53%
Avai (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Avai away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.00 + Avai defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Avai attack 0.95 + BOA defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BOA scores more
37%
level
30%
Avai scores more
33%

BOA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Genesis← William Barbio
16'
Rômulo↳ Rodrigão
19'
Pedro Castro
45+1'
Renato↳ Rômulo
46'
Bruno Tubarão← Amaral
53'
Elivelton Lima
55'
Rodrigão
58'
Elivelton Lima
58'
Elivelton Lima
66'
Luan← Pedro Castro
67'
Rafinha← Djavan
70'
Leandro Canhoto
79'
Getúlio← Rômulo
90+1'
Carlos Alberto← Renato

Possession

BOA: 61Avai: 3961%BOA

Shots

BOA: 13Avai: 613BOA

Pass accuracy

BOA: 83Avai: 7054%BOA

Statistics

BOAAvai
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots6
6Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots6
2On Target4
8Off Target1
3Blocked1
2Inside Box2
11Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
483Total Passes300
403Accurate Passes209
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1
0Offsides4

Serie B: BOA 0–2 Avai

Avai beat BOA 2-0 in Serie B on June 15, 2018.

Goals: Rômulo (16'), Renato (45+1').

BOA controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Melão in Varginha.