BOA 4–0 Águia Negra: Result & Stats | Serie D

BOA

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Águia Negra

Willian Mococa 66' (pen)

Marcelinho 53'

Vagner 41'

Fabinho 36'

6/5/2021

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BOA73%

×Draw17%

Águia Negra10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BOAExpected goals in this matchÁguia Negra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.71

BOA

2.31

Águia Negra

0.71

BOA creates 225% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

BOA

1.75

Águia Negra

0.67

allows per match

BOA

0.75

Águia Negra

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BOA+0.00on par

Águia Negra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Águia Negra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

BOA or draw

90%

BOA or Águia Negra

83%

Draw or Águia Negra

27%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+

49%

Águia Negra wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals

90%

BOA 2+ goals

67%

BOA 3+ goals

40%

Águia Negra 1+ goals

51%

Águia Negra 2+ goals

16%

Águia Negra 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)

88%

Águia Negra (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Águia Negra away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.75 + Águia Negra defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.31

Águia Negra attack 0.67 + BOA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

BOA scores more

73%

level

17%

Águia Negra scores more

10%

BOA at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Fabinho

41'

Vagner

53'

Marcelinho

58'

Pelé← Vagner

66'

Alyson← Romeu

66'

Nicholas← Marcelinho

66'

Willian MococaPenalty

67'

Willian← Lineker

75'

Everton Amaro← Janderson

78'

Endrick← Adriano

80'

Stuart← Fabinho

BOA

Águia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fabinho

Iago

▼

Romeu

⚽

▼

Marcelinh

⚽

Mococa

⚽

▼

Vagner

Manager: Luiz Gabardo

58'▲Pelé←▼Vagner

66'▲Alyson←▼Romeu

66'▲Nicholas←▼Marcelinho

80'▲Stuart←▼Fabinho

BOA substitutes

PeléAlysonNicholasStuartAlencarCoelhoPeralta

Manager: Rodrigo Cascca

67'▲Willian←▼Lineker

75'▲Everton Amaro←▼Janderson

78'▲Endrick←▼Adriano

Águia Negra substitutes

WillianAmaroEndrickAdãozinhoIsaelRafaelFlavio