Bo'ness Athletic 0–2 Linlithgow Rose

Bo'ness Athletic

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Linlithgow Rose

O. Hamilton 10'

L. Stenhouse 4'

10/24/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bo'ness Athletic41%

×Draw22%

Linlithgow Rose37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bo'ness AthleticExpected goals in this matchLinlithgow Rose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.80

Bo'ness Athletic

1.90

Linlithgow Rose

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.80

creates per match

2.80

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bo'ness Athletic

2.80

Linlithgow Rose

2.80

allows per match

Bo'ness Athletic

0.80

Linlithgow Rose

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bo'ness Athletic+0.00on par

Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bo'ness Athletic ↓

Linlithgow Rose →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bo'ness Athletic or draw

63%

Bo'ness Athletic or Linlithgow Rose

78%

Draw or Linlithgow Rose

59%

Winning margin

Bo'ness Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bo'ness Athletic 1+ goals

85%

Bo'ness Athletic 2+ goals

56%

Bo'ness Athletic 3+ goals

29%

Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals

83%

Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals

54%

Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bo'ness Athletic (draw refunded)

53%

Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bo'ness Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Linlithgow Rose away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bo'ness Athletic attack 2.80 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Linlithgow Rose attack 2.80 + Bo'ness Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bo'ness Athletic scores more

41%

level

22%

Linlithgow Rose scores more

37%

Bo'ness Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bo'ness Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

L. Stenhouse↳ P. Kennedy

10'

O. Hamilton

Bo'ness

Linlithgow

Manager: W. Irvine

Manager: Gordon Herd