Bo'ness Athletic 2–0 Kilwinning Rangers

Bo'ness Athletic

2 – 0

Kilwinning Rangers

8/30/2024

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNewtown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bo'ness Athletic59%

×Draw19%

Kilwinning Rangers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bo'ness AthleticExpected goals in this matchKilwinning Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.40

Bo'ness Athletic

2.40

Kilwinning Rangers

1.40

Bo'ness Athletic creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.80

creates per match

2.00

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bo'ness Athletic

2.80

Kilwinning Rangers

2.00

allows per match

Bo'ness Athletic

0.80

Kilwinning Rangers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bo'ness Athletic+0.00on par

Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bo'ness Athletic ↓

Kilwinning Rangers →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bo'ness Athletic or draw

78%

Bo'ness Athletic or Kilwinning Rangers

81%

Draw or Kilwinning Rangers

41%

Winning margin

Bo'ness Athletic wins by 2+

38%

Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+

Team goals

Bo'ness Athletic 1+ goals

91%

Bo'ness Athletic 2+ goals

69%

Bo'ness Athletic 3+ goals

42%

Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals

75%

Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals

41%

Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bo'ness Athletic (draw refunded)

73%

Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bo'ness Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Kilwinning Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bo'ness Athletic attack 2.80 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.00 + Bo'ness Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bo'ness Athletic scores more

59%

level

19%

Kilwinning Rangers scores more

22%

Bo'ness Athletic at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bo'ness Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff