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Bo'ness Athletic vs Beith — FA Cup 2019

Bo'ness Athletic
Bo'ness Athletic
FT
3 – 1
Beith
Beith
8/9/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundNewtown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bo'ness Athletic49%
×Draw21%
Beith29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bo'ness Athletic
2.06
Beith
1.56

Bo'ness Athletic creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bo'ness Athletic
2.80
Beith
2.33

allows per match

Bo'ness Athletic
0.80
Beith
1.33

finishing

Bo'ness Athletic+0.00on par
Beith+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bo'ness Athletic ↓

Beith →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bo'ness Athletic or draw
71%
Bo'ness Athletic or Beith
79%
Draw or Beith
51%

Winning margin

Bo'ness Athletic wins by 2+
28%
Beith wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bo'ness Athletic 1+ goals
87%
Bo'ness Athletic 2+ goals
61%
Bo'ness Athletic 3+ goals
34%
Beith 1+ goals
79%
Beith 2+ goals
46%
Beith 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bo'ness Athletic (draw refunded)
63%
Beith (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bo'ness Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Beith away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bo'ness Athletic attack 2.80 + Beith defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Beith attack 2.33 + Bo'ness Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bo'ness Athletic scores more
49%
level
21%
Beith scores more
29%

Bo'ness Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bo'ness Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bo'ness Athletic vs Beith

Bo'ness Athletic beat Beith 3-1 in FA Cup on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Newtown Park in Bo'ness.