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Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
9/23/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 5Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bnei Yehuda40%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Yehuda
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 74 away

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.47
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.26
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw
65%
Bnei Yehuda or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
75%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
60%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
19%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
77%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
43%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
18%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
53%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more
40%
level
25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
35%

Bnei Yehuda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Bnei Yehuda beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1-0 in Liga Leumit on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.