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Bnei Yehuda vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
8/26/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 1Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Bnei Yehuda40%
×Draw27%
Kafr Qasim33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Yehuda
1.32
Kafr Qasim
1.16

Bnei Yehuda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 128 away

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.47
Kafr Qasim
1.06

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.26
Kafr Qasim
1.17

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par
Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw
67%
Bnei Yehuda or Kafr Qasim
73%
Draw or Kafr Qasim
60%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
18%
Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
73%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
38%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
15%
Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
69%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
32%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
55%
Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more
40%
level
27%
Kafr Qasim scores more
33%

Bnei Yehuda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Yehuda vs Kafr Qasim

Bnei Yehuda and Kafr Qasim drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on August 26, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.