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Bnei Yehuda vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
9/14/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 4Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bnei Yehuda34%
×Draw25%
Ironi Tiberias41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Yehuda
1.30
Ironi Tiberias
1.45

Ironi Tiberias creates 12% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.47
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.26
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw
59%
Bnei Yehuda or Ironi Tiberias
75%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
66%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
15%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
73%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
37%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
14%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
42%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
45%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more
34%
level
25%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
41%

Ironi Tiberias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Bnei Yehuda 4–1 Ironi Tiberias

Bnei Yehuda beat Ironi Tiberias 4-1 in Liga Leumit on September 14, 2023.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.