Bnei Yehuda vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Bnei Yehuda36%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona27%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bnei Yehuda creates 23% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under83
- Over17
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No74
- Yes26
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bnei Yehuda ↓
Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches
Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bnei Yehuda attack 1.24 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79
Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 0.33 + Bnei Yehuda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Bnei Yehuda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Maccabi HerzliyaBnei Yehuda
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Kiryat Yam SC
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Afula
Kafr Qasim
Hapoel Acre
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bnei Yehuda host Ironi Kiryat Shmona on Friday, 19 January 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Bnei Yehuda vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Bnei Yehuda beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1-0 in Liga Leumit on January 19, 2024.
Goals: M. Maman (7').
The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.