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Bnei Yehuda vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — Liga Leumit 2019

Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
3/11/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 25Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Bnei Yehuda37%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Ramat Gan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Yehuda
1.29
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 129 away

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.47
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.30

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.26
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.12

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw
64%
Bnei Yehuda or Hapoel Ramat Gan
73%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
63%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
72%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
37%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
14%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
50%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.30 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more
37%
level
27%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
36%

Bnei Yehuda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Bnei Yehuda 0–5 Hapoel Ramat Gan

Hapoel Ramat Gan beat Bnei Yehuda 5-0 in Liga Leumit on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.