Bnei Yehuda 0–1 Hapoel Afula: Result & Stats

Bnei Yehuda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Afula

10/31/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 11Shkhunat Hatikva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Bnei Yehuda46%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Afula28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bnei YehudaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Afula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

Bnei Yehuda

1.54

Hapoel Afula

1.14

Bnei Yehuda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 129 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

1.26

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda

1.47

Hapoel Afula

1.02

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda

1.26

Hapoel Afula

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Hapoel Afula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw

72%

Bnei Yehuda or Hapoel Afula

75%

Draw or Hapoel Afula

54%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

79%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

45%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

20%

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

62%

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more

46%

level

25%

Hapoel Afula scores more

28%

Bnei Yehuda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff