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Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
8/26/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 1Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin37%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Tel Aviv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.18
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 105 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.02

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.42

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Hapoel Tel Aviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
65%
Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Tel Aviv
72%
Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv
63%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
69%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
33%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
12%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
51%
Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.02 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
37%
level
28%
Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more
35%

Bnei Sakhnin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Tel Aviv drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.