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Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
12/27/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 12Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin35%
×Draw29%
Hapoel Hadera36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.12
Hapoel Hadera
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 97 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Hapoel Hadera
1.03

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Hapoel Hadera
1.31

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
64%
Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Hadera
71%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
65%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
14%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
67%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
31%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
10%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
49%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
35%
level
29%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
36%

Hapoel Hadera at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hapoel Hadera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Hadera

Hapoel Hadera beat Bnei Sakhnin 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.