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Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla — Liga Leumit 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
6/11/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Round - 1Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin67%
×Draw20%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
2.00
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
0.74

Bnei Sakhnin creates 170% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 41 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
2.50
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.24

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.25
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.49

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
87%
Bnei Sakhnin or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
80%
Draw or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
33%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
42%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
86%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
59%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
32%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
52%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
17%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
84%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 2.50 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.00

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.24 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
67%
level
20%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
13%

Bnei Sakhnin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Bnei Sakhnin beat Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3-1 in Liga Leumit on June 11, 2020.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.