Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 3–2 Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim

3 – 2

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

8/30/2019

State Cup · 1st RoundSoccer and Sport Education Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim49%

×Draw19%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bnei Jaffa OrtodoximExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Ironi Amishav PT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.00

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim

2.50

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

2.00

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

2.67

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim

1.33

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

1.33

allows per match

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim

2.67

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim+0.00on par

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim ↓

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim or draw

68%

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim or Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

81%

Draw or Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

51%

Winning margin

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim wins by 2+

30%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 1+ goals

92%

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 2+ goals

71%

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 3+ goals

45%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals

86%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals

59%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim (draw refunded)

61%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim attack 1.33 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 1.33 + Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim scores more

49%

level

19%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more

32%

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff