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Bnei Eilat vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat — State Cup 2019

Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
CANC
16:10
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
9/5/2024State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Eilat Kiryat Synthetic Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bnei Eilat32%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Eilat
1.60
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.97

Maccabi Kiryat Gat creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bnei Eilat
2.00
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
2.80

allows per match

Bnei Eilat
1.14
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.20

finishing

Bnei Eilat+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Gat+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Eilat ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Gat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bnei Eilat or draw
54%
Bnei Eilat or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
78%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
68%

Winning margin

Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
15%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
80%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
47%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
22%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1+ goals
86%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2+ goals
58%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
41%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Eilat at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Eilat attack 2.00 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Maccabi Kiryat Gat attack 2.80 + Bnei Eilat defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bnei Eilat scores more
32%
level
22%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat scores more
46%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Kiryat Gat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bnei Eilat host Maccabi Kiryat Gat

September 5, 2024: Bnei Eilat take on Maccabi Kiryat Gat in State Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bnei Eilat host Maccabi Kiryat Gat at Eilat Kiryat Synthetic Sports.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.