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Bnei Eilat vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — State Cup 2019

Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
10/26/2021State CupState Cup · 7th RoundThe North Beach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bnei Eilat42%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Kfar Saba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Eilat
1.56
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.38

Bnei Eilat creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bnei Eilat
2.00
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.63

allows per match

Bnei Eilat
1.14
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.13

finishing

Bnei Eilat+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Eilat ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bnei Eilat or draw
66%
Bnei Eilat or Hapoel Kfar Saba
75%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
58%

Winning margin

Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
79%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
46%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
21%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
55%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Eilat at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Eilat attack 2.00 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.63 + Bnei Eilat defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bnei Eilat scores more
42%
level
25%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
34%

Bnei Eilat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bnei Eilat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Bnei Eilat 0–4 Hapoel Kfar Saba

Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Bnei Eilat 4-0 in State Cup on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at The North Beach in Eilat.