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Bnei Eilat vs Beitar Yavne — State Cup 2019

Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
FT
4 – 0
Beitar Yavne
Beitar Yavne
10/11/2022State CupState Cup · 6th RoundThe North Beach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bnei Eilat72%
×Draw17%
Beitar Yavne12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Eilat
2.50
Beitar Yavne
0.91

Bnei Eilat creates 175% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bnei Eilat
2.00
Beitar Yavne
0.67

allows per match

Bnei Eilat
1.14
Beitar Yavne
3.00

finishing

Bnei Eilat+0.00on par
Beitar Yavne+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Eilat ↓

Beitar Yavne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bnei Eilat or draw
88%
Bnei Eilat or Beitar Yavne
83%
Draw or Beitar Yavne
28%

Winning margin

Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
49%
Beitar Yavne wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
92%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
71%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
45%
Beitar Yavne 1+ goals
60%
Beitar Yavne 2+ goals
23%
Beitar Yavne 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
86%
Beitar Yavne (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Eilat at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Beitar Yavne away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Eilat attack 2.00 + Beitar Yavne defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Beitar Yavne attack 0.67 + Bnei Eilat defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bnei Eilat scores more
72%
level
17%
Beitar Yavne scores more
12%

Bnei Eilat at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bnei Eilat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Bnei Eilat 4–0 Beitar Yavne

Bnei Eilat beat Beitar Yavne 4-0 in State Cup on October 11, 2022.

The match was played at The North Beach in Eilat.